I am happy, this Government seems to be listening to the voice of reason. We had said forget the rate of infections, let it go but concentrate on treatment and death rate.

We had also said, drill down the figures of both discharge and death rate so that a trend analysis will offer us better protection than social distancing.

Furthermore, we also said that they should decentralise the treatment so that turn around time would be shortened.

Today we are at 7,526 and still climbing. I am happy. Panic has dropped because we are now beginning to do the right things.

No death has been recorded in the last 24 hours from covid-19 in Nigeria and govt has started giving us the drilled down analysis which goes to support our position.

They have said 70 % of infected are men while 30 % are women. They have further said that 70% of infected are between the ages of 31 to 49 age demographics which according to them are the most active years. This is not surprising because that is the most mobile age.

70% of deaths are from 61 and above.

But lets look closer at the death rate. 50% of deaths are from those with diabetes. This is not comforting but great news. A lot of Nigerians from 40 are prone to diabetes cos of diet, lifestyle and genes. But the information is key because it allows for both nigerians and the health community to better prepare and protect this grouping.

Those with sickle cell anaemia are faring far better as there has been no known death from that grouping. Study shows that 90% of those are found in Africa while over 70% of these are in SW Nigeria. Surprisingly these vulnerable grouping seems to be kicking Covid-19 to the kerb.

But the most interesting part of the analysis is the part that says that over 70% of the 221 deaths are from carelessness and self medication. What that means is that if we discount this from the death rate, we have technically about only 50 ‘real’ deaths from covid-19 out of the 7,000 plus infections.

This has given the Govt the courage to rethink the strategy by looking at decentralising the care and considering bringing in more primary health institutions into the fight like we recommended and opening up the economy.

Good moves. With these you will begin to see a weakening of the curve once Government can sincerely implement these policies.

Some of us do not get carried away with the arrogance of intellectualism borne out of elitist posturing as a result of their training or exposure.

As a trained social scientist we just look at official data and do our analysis and so far we have recorded 100% i our projections and predictions.

Enough of the gloating, the most important thing is that Government is listening and repositioning and the most important curve which is death is remaining flat.

That is all that matters.

Thank you

Duke of Shomolu


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